Historically speaking, for an incumbent president to get reelected, it takes more than just winning the same states they won when they were first elected. A president who can't expand their coalition of support is extremely vulnerable, and Joe Biden is the personification of a vulnerable president right now — so much so that he's not only at risk of losing states he flipped in 2020, but it's looking like some traditionally blue states are looking good for him too.
For example, Nevada hasn't voted Republican since 2004, and Trump fell short in both 2016 and 2020. However, this year, he consistently leads Biden by an average of 4.5 points, indicating a shift in voter sentiment. Similarly, Virginia has been blue since 2004, with Biden winning comfortably in 2020. Yet, recent polls show Biden's lead narrowing, suggesting a changing political landscape that could favor Trump. Maine is another state I think Trump has a chance of winning. Though the state has favored Democrats since 1992, according to recent polls, Trump can win there.
Related: Trump Makes a Very Interesting Demand of Biden Before First Debate
Another blue state that appears competitive this year is Minnesota, where Trump was Friday night for the Minnesota GOP's annual Lincoln Reagan dinner in St. Paul.
“We’re going to win this state," Trump said."“This November the people of Minnesota are going to tell Crooked Joe Biden — right? ‘The Apprentice'? ’You’re fired!'”
"Trump boasted that the steep tariffs he imposed on foreign steel while serving as president bought the Iron Range, the iron mining area of northeastern Minnesota, “'roaring back to life,'" the Associated Press reported. "The area, with a heavy population of blue-collar workers and union workers, used to be solidly Democratic, but the region has been trending Republican in recent elections."
Minnesota hasn't voted Republican since Richard Nixon won the state in 1972. But, Trump came really close to winning it in 2016, losing the state to Hillary Clinton by a mere 1.5 points. Biden won the state in 2020 by more than seven points, despite Trump's efforts there, but recent polling shows that it is very within reach for Trump. Biden's RealClearPolitics average in Minnesota currently stands at +2.3 points. That's a lead that should be terrifying for Biden's campaign.
Related: Should Trump Make a Play for Virginia?
“I think this is something Trump wants to do," observed David Hann, the chairman of the Republican Party of Minnesota. "He believes this is a state he can win. We believe that’s the case as well, said in an interview."
U.S. Senator Tina Smith, a Minnesota Democrat, scoffed at Trump's belief that he could win the state, claiming that the Trump campaign is merely “grasping at straws.” Yet, she also said that the Biden campaign "is going to work hard for every vote.”
“We’re going to engage with voters all over the state," she said. "But I think Minnesota voters are going to choose President Biden.”
So, it sounds like the Biden campaign is on defense in Minnesota.
The Biden campaign is reportedly trying to make inroads in North Carolina, but Trump's lead there is more than double Biden's lead in Minnesota, so if any campaign is grasping at straws, it's Biden's.
