Arizona is a longtime red state that has become a more purple-ish battleground state. Naturally, Democrats really want to win it in November because doing so would considerably narrow Trump's path to 270 Electoral College votes.
In 2020, Joe Biden barely won Arizona, and that victory was under very suspicious circumstances. In addition to mass mail-in voting influencing the election, an audit discovered that 53,305 ballots were impacted by various irregularities, more than five times the state-certified margin of victory for Joe Biden. Of course, the media refused to take the audit seriously, and if you dare to suggest Biden's victory wasn't legitimate, you'll probably get censored. Regardless of what you think happened in Arizona, conventional wisdom is that it will be close in November.
So far, things aren't working out as they hoped.
You may recall that Democrats have been hoping to use the abortion issue to their advantage in November, and Arizona was one such state where they thought it would work. Last month, when the Arizona Supreme Court upheld a Civil War-era ban on abortion, the Biden campaign launched a massive ad campaign in the state.
However, earlier this month, the Arizona legislature voted to repeal the ban on almost all abortions that was expected to take effect in June. As PJM's Stephen Kruiser noted, Democrat Gov. Katie Hobbs most certainly hated signing the repeal because this ruined the Democrats' election turnout strategy.
In 2020, polling in Arizona actually did look good for Biden. His final RealClearPolitics average lead was less than a point, and a majority of polls actually showed him leading by as much as ten points in the final months of the election. Fast forward to this year, and it's clear that the abortion issue isn't swaying Arizona voters to support Biden. Despite the state Supreme Court's ruling, Donald Trump has maintained a formidable lead in the polls. It's now been over a year since any poll conducted in Arizona tracked by RealClearPolitics has shown Biden with a lead.
Related: Biden’s Path to 270 Electoral College Votes Looks Increasingly Bleak
For example, the latest CBS News/YouGov poll found that despite widespread support for abortion rights, Trump leads Biden by five points in Arizona. The reason, of course, is that voters see other issues as more important, like the economy and immigration.
"Compared to summer 2020, more voters now say recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life in Arizona worse. And many Hispanic voters say this today too," reports ABC News. "And then Trump's policies are described as putting the interests of current U.S. citizens ahead of the interests of recent immigrants, whereas many Arizonans say Mr. Biden's policies don't."
In the end, Biden's radical agenda once again destroyed an opportunity to win a vital state in 2024.
