Polls consistently showed that the 2024 election has shaped up to be a rematch that the public didn't want. Yet here we are, and come November, Americans are going to be faced with a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump once again.
There are still mumblings about replacing Biden at the convention; of course, such ideas seem extremely unlikely. It's the reality that voters seem to have come to terms with, yet this election feels nothing like the previous contest between the same two men.
During the 2020 election cycle, Trump never surpassed Biden in the RealClearPolitics average — not even in the months preceding the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden's lead was so substantial that he even enjoyed a double-digit lead in the RCP average multiple times. Based on the polls, Biden always had a lock on the election. Meanwhile, Trump and his supporters dismissed them, insisting that the polls were wrong.
They were wrong, to be fair, just as they were in 2016. And in both cases, Trump outperformed the polls. Biden's final RCP average was +7.2 points over Trump, and his actual national popular vote lead was just 4.5 points — that's with the added benefit of massive mail-in voting. Despite that lead, his election hinged on razor-thin margins in a few select states.
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Four years later, in the rematch between Trump and Biden, the polls are much closer, with Trump typically ahead in most. Trump has led Biden in the RCP average since September by various margins and currently holds a +1.1 point lead. It's a tight race nationally, but the race looks even better when you look at battleground state polling. Trump leads in most of the battleground states.
The dynamic in this rematch has changed so much that it's Biden who is claiming that the polls are wrong this time around. Perhaps they are. Pollsters were wrong in 2016 and 2020, but both times, they underestimated Trump’s support. It seems the persistent issue is that pollsters haven't understood who Trump voters are or why he appeals to them.
But even if we take the polls at face value, Trump looks poised to potentially win not only the Electoral College but also the national popular vote at this point. Both RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight currently project Trump to win the election with 312 Electoral College votes.
This outcome would be a stunning vindication for him and a devastating indictment of Biden. However, the race is far from over, so there's no reason to take the current state of the race for granted.
Even if you're inclination is to not believe the polls, I suspect you still feel something is different in this election. Voters are in a unique position to compare life under Trump to life under Biden, and there isn't a campaign slogan or an ad that can convince you that things have been better under Biden. Biden tried with his Bidenomics messaging, and that failed miserably, as did his years of claiming the border is secure.
The candidates may be the same, but this election feels different because Trump is in a better position today than he ever was in 2020 or even 2016.
